characteristic of financial markets is shortness of memory . And , it ’ s true . They pile in , their hearts are broken , their hopes are dashed and five years later , they do it again because of the shortness of memory .
I saw that Edward Chancellor was one of the prior [ speakers ] and I started writing my memos the year before Bob Pisani started in this business , in 1990 . And I was writing those memos for 10 years until I finally wrote one that got some response . I spent the fall of 1999 reading Chancellor ’ s book , Devil Take the Hindmost : A History of Financial Speculation . And it talked about people who had left their jobs
on ships to speculate in the shares of the South Sea Company in 1720 . And I said , hold on , that ’ s what they ’ re doing today in the stocks of the web grocers and the e-commerce companies .
So , I wrote a memo called “ Bubble . com ” talking about what I thought it connoted . And it had two good attributes : it was correct and it was correct fast . Because in this business , if you ’ re correct slow , as they say , you can ’ t distinguish between being too far ahead of your time and being wrong . And I spent last fall reading another Chancellor book , called The Price of Time : The History of Interest
Rates . I thought it was a fascinating topic and a wonderful title because that ’ s what interest rates are . They ’ re the price of time . I rent out my money and you pay me rent on my money . It ’ s the price you pay for the use of my money for a time . And that one resulted in the memo “ Easy Money .” That ’ s the one that ’ s out now .
Knowledge of financial history has enabled me greatly to recognize patterns in the markets and , hopefully , profit from them rather than succumb . This is a great evening . This is a great institution . Thank you to everybody for supporting me in this award .
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Photos : Alan Barnett |
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1 . Members of the Museum ’ s Board of Trustees at the 2024 Gala cocktail reception . 2 . The 2024 MoAF Gala dinner at the Ziegfeld Ballroom in midtown Manhattan . 3 . Raudline Etienne introduces Tina Byles Williams . 4 . Emcees Consuelo Mack and Bob Pisani present the Special Recognition award to Tina Byles Williams . 5 . Mark Carney introduces Richard Clarida . 6 . Emcees Consuelo Mack and Bob Pisani present the Whitehead Award to Richard Clarida . 7 . Charles Royce , recipient of the Museum ’ s Financial Innovation Award . 8 . Mark Shenkman introduces Howard Marks . 9 . Emcees Consuelo Mack and Bob Pisani present the Lifetime Achievement Award to Howard Marks . www . MoAF . org | Spring 2024 | FINANCIAL HISTORY 15