ROI Since Jan 2008
PWCC 100 |
246 % |
S & P 500 |
89 % |
PWCC 100 Index representing the investment performance of professionally-graded trading cards over the past decade. Data compiled as of June 8, 2018.
with VintageCardPrices. com. PWCC has been collecting and tracking these figures since 2008.
To be included in the indices, all cards must have traded a minimum of 10 times over the past 10 years, with at least two sales in the last 12 months. This means that many of the most valuable cards( for example, the 1909 T206 Honus Wagner or 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle in grades higher than PSA 8) are not included because they do not meet the trade frequency requirement. The PWCC indices are dynamic, and cards are included in or omitted from the indices in compliance with the trade frequency requirement.
An outlier algorithm is triggered if a recent sale widely over- or under-performs current market averages; subsequent sales will either validate the flagged sale for inclusion in the index or confirm its omission as an outlier.
Sales that satisfy both the trade frequency and outlier criteria are sorted by average market sales price, which is calculated as the average of the last three auction sales, to avoid inaccurate representation of volatility due to a single sale, and then segmented into the various PWCC indices.
Only auction sales are included in the indices, as private or buy-it-now retail sales do not represent a true gauge of an open supply-and-demand marketplace. All data consist of cards graded by Professional Sports Authenticator( PSA). These cards represent 80 % of the market population for graded trading cards and, thus, afford the greatest number of directly comparable sales.
Only grades PSA 3 and up are considered for years 1929 and prior, grades PSA 4 and up for years 1930 – 1949, grades PSA 5 and up for years 1950 – 1960, grades PSA 7 and up for years 1961 – 1969, grades PSA 8 and up for years 1970 – 1979 and grades PSA 9 and up for years 1980 and after. Cards from 2000 and later are not included in the indices at this time; however, most cards( approximately 98 %, according to PWCC’ s calculations) that trade with sufficient frequency and value to be considered investment-caliber were manufactured before 1987.
PWCC’ s data show that investmentcaliber trading cards have continued to perform well in a variety of market conditions over the past decade, including during the Great Recession.
As of June 8, 2018, the S & P 500 had achieved an 89 % return on investment( ROI) over the past 10 years, while the PWCC Top 500 index achieved a 10-year ROI of 146 %. The PWCC Top 100 performed even better, generating a 10-year ROI of 246 %( see Figure 1). The PWCC 2500 slightly underperformed the S & P 500 but still provided a very respectable 72 % ROI.
Although 10 years is not a long track record in the grand scheme of things— and, as with any investment, past performance is no guarantee of future results— the indices do show that the most valuable vintage cards have consistently outperformed stocks over the past decade.
The first stock index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, introduced in 1896, proved to be an extremely useful concept, enabling investors to better understand the overall movements of the stock market and providing a benchmark for investment performance. Other indices soon followed, and today there are stock indices of all shapes and sizes, both investable and benchmark-only. As trading cards transition from what was once purely a hobby into a real alternative asset class, collectors
34 FINANCIAL HISTORY | Summer 2018 | www. MoAF. org