Financial History Issue 129 (Spring 2019) | Page 29

value of manufacturing it had reached in 1815, and Lexington’s hemp-processing plants, which had produced naval stores like rope and canvas, never reopened. The economy of the United States depended on commodity sales abroad; between 1816 and 1823 the index of export values fell by more than half, even as the quantity of cotton exported actually increased. 2 The economy eventually recovered—in time for the next cycle of boom and bust that culminated in the Panic of 1837. It is not so much that people forgot the les- sons of the panic as that they failed to learn any. Everyone knew about the previ- ous century’s South Sea Bubble and Mis- sissippi Bubble—European investment schemes that had blown up in the faces of gullible investors. But their victims were understood to have been wealthy specula- tors, not the hard-working population. The Panic of 1819 was different; it struck all economic classes and all regions. The country had seen nothing like this before, and there was so little context for under- standing it that very little of practical ben- efit was learned. The “hard times” of 1819 fill the let- ters and diaries of Americans, some well- known but many of them obscure at the time and most forgotten now. A few, like the Philadelphia banker Stephen Girard or the Mississippi planter Stephen Dun- can, were so wealthy that the depression’s worst blows could not ruin them; for oth- ers, the future was suddenly in doubt. Thomas Jefferson was ruined; his grandson took over his finances, but he was forced to sell Jefferson’s beloved Mon- ticello. When Stephen F. Austin’s family lost everything in Missouri, he led emi- grants to the Mexican province of Texas. Lucy Mack Smith (mother of the Mormon prophet Joseph Smith) recorded her fam- ily’s decision to move west from Vermont, “to New York, where the farmers raise wheat in abundance.” Their first harvest there, they hoped, would feed them, but until then her husband worried, “How shall we be able to sustain ourselves?” The Smiths weathered the crisis, but for many people, the Panic of 1819 was the catas- trophe that upended their lives: Llewellyn Jones, an aged veteran of Valley Forge who hanged himself in despair when cot- ton prices fell in Alabama; or John Piatt, Cincinnati’s leading citizen and donor of its first public park, who died in debtors’ prison at the age of 40. 3 Many other lives were cut short by the effects of the panic, and even more hopes were dashed. The disillusionment of a nation resonates in the words of Patience Lippincott, called Patty by her family. With a three-month-old daughter she had followed her husband to buy land in what he insisted was a “Terrestrial Paradise” in Missouri. Writing home to the brother she would never see again, she closed her letter, “Let us remember that this world is not our abiding place... We should not be immoderate in our desires for any earthly goal for all things beneath the sun shall fade and vanish away.” Only a few months later, her restless husband moved his little family again, to Illinois. There Patty died of malaria in the tiny village of Milton, which was entirely abandoned within 10 years—a ghost town left behind by the Panic of 1819. 4   Andrew H. Browning was educated at Princeton and the University of Virginia. He has taught history in Washington, DC; Honolulu, HI; and Portland, OR, and he has been a Virginia Governor’s Fellow and a National Endowment for the Humanities Scholar. He is the author of The Panic of 1819: The First Great Depression (University of Missouri Press, 2019), which was nominated for the Cundill History Prize. Notes 1. Niles’ Weekly Register, April 1, 1820; Asa Sheldon, The Life of Asa G. Shel- don, Wilmington Farmer (Woburn, MA: Moody, 1862), 146–47. 2. Douglass C. North, The Economic Growth of the United States 1790-1860 (Engle- wood, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1961), Appendix III, Table 1; Pittsburgh Gazette 5 February 1819; Matthew Carey, “The New Olive Branch,” Essays on Political Economy (Philadelphia: Carey and Lea, 1822), 330. 3. Lucy Mack Smith, History of The Prophet Joseph Smith, By His Mother (Salt Lake City: Improvement Era, 1902), 65, 69. 4. Emily Noyes, ed., A Family History in Let- ters and Documents, 1667–1837 (St. Paul, MN: [privately printed] 1919), 1:344–45; Charles Rammelkamp, “Thomas Lippin- cott: A Pioneer of 1818 and his Diary,” Journal of the Illinois State Historical Soci- ety 10 (1917–18), 254. Bubbles and Crashes continued from page 19 number of shareholders, the most opti- mistic of which is that put forth by the NYSE. Their fact books estimate that in 1952, there were six million shareholders; about 4% of the US population owned stock. By 1956, some estimates suggest that this number had increased by one-third. By 1965, the number increased to 20 mil- lion, or 10% of the population. That is, the 1960s witnessed a very sharp increase in the number of individual investors invest- ing in the stock market. By 1972, this number may have been as high as 32 million people, although it declined following the oil crisis to 25 mil- lion in 1975. This pattern is mirrored in the time series of stock affordability in Figure 2. Following World War II, average share prices continued to decline, wages rose and odd lot stock trading was increasingly available. By the 1950s, almost any manu- facturing worker could afford to purchase an average priced stock with a couple of days’ wages, and this remained fairly constant until the 1970s. While not cheap, stocks were now in the realm of affordable investments for much of the population. It was in the 1970s that the cost of a share decreased to less than a day’s labor. In short, there most likely were not many new novices throughout the 1940s and 1950s, and there was a sharp increase in the late 1950s and, in particular, in the early 1960s. In short, there most likely were not many new novices throughout the 1940s and 1950s, and there was a sharp increase in the late 1950s and, in particu- lar, in the early 1960s.  Brent Goldfarb is Associate Professor of Strategy and Entrepreneurship and the Academic Director at the Dingman Cen- ter for Entrepreneurship at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business. David A. Kirsch is Associate Professor of Strategy and Entrepreneur- ship at the University of Maryland’s Rob- ert H. Smith School of Business. Goldfarb and Kirsch are the co-authors of Bubbles and Crashes: The Boom and Bust of Technological Innovation (Stanford University Press, 2019), from which this article has been adapted. www.MoAF.org  |  Spring 2019  |  FINANCIAL HISTORY  27